Tuesday, August 19, 2008Musharraf will wait for his political comeback
By Shaheen SehbaiKARACHI: General Pervez Musharraf has finally broken down and has accepted defeat, whether fully on his own terms is not yet clear, but he has set a very precious and respectable precedent for future of Pakistani politics and democracy.
By resigning in a constitutional way and allowing a non-violent, smooth and dignified transition, he has broken the tradition of past military dictators who would never quit, unless forcibly pushed, assassinated or removed unconstitutionally.
Of course the stage was set for this ultimate defeat by the political parties through their votes of no-confidence in the provincial assemblies, yet Mr Musharraf could have become a big spoiler, if he had so wanted. He had all the powers to do so, as he said in his final departing address.
But his last words gave away a lot of what remains as an active thought process in Musharraf's mind. The way he presented a long list of his achievements and successes it appeared that he was making the pitch, as if in an electoral contest, for his political comeback, believing firmly that he had, and would like to have, a future political role in Pakistani politics.
This role is not yet available to him but much will depend on how the coalition partners and major political parties behave in the next few months and years. If the six months after the Feb 18 elections are any guide, the omens are not very encouraging but politicians have to rise up to the occasion if they have to survive.
Musharraf had very obviously and conveniently devised the wait and see strategy after the elections as he expected, somewhat rightly, that the PPP and the PML-N would not be able to keep the coalition together and once they break up he and his supporters will again get a breakthrough and regain the initiative. He came perilously close to achieving his goal, of course through efforts he could make as the man occupying the presidency.
Yet Mr Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif stood together, demonstrating that they have understood one core and fundamental fact for their political survival and success ñ their sticking together for the common cause, as enunciated in the Charter of Democracy. It is that core value which defeated Musharraf and all his machinations.
Musharraf's insistence that he would stay in Pakistan is again based primarily on the calculation that until the two major parties break up he should be provided a safe stay and when they break up, he would re-launch himself, probably as a leader of the Karachi-led Mohajir population, with or even without, the blessings of Mr Altaf Hussain.
This streak of leading the Karachi political scene was more than evident in his recent visits to Karachi where he tried to create his own lobby of businessmen and mohajir leaders, almost to the exclusion of Altaf Hussain and his hard core supporters.
Musharraf's address one night a few weeks ago to a select group of Karachi businessmen, where his strong supporter Governor Ishrat ul Ebad was present and Karachi Mayor Mustufa Kamal made his famous, but mysterious, comment that within a few months the geography of Karachi may change, was seen by Altaf Hussain as an attempt to challenge him on his turf.
Within hours of that Musharraf address, his first after months of post-Feb 18 polls hibernation, Altaf Bhai had to arrange his own gathering of Karachi businessmen and address them from London. Why this need for a parallel event felt by the MQM headquarters in London was obvious: Mr Musharraf was trying to hijack his party and Altaf Bhai is not an amateur in fighting turf wars. Soon thereafter both Governor Ebad and Mayor were summoned to London for whatever happens to MQM men when they err.
Yet while it is too early to discuss the future of Musharraf, the coalition has to decide whether they would let him go Scot free, let him enjoy the interim period of absence from the scene, and then bounce back when the people get frustrated with the democratic experience or possible coalition infighting.
The alternative for them is not to allow Musharraf to leave the country, press on the charges that they have been preparing against him, restore the judiciary in its original form and let these independent judges decide whether Musharraf is guilty of any punishable crimes and what sentence should he be handed.
The mid-term strategy to get this possible political threat out of their way would be to get Musharraf convicted in a fair trial on any one or more charges and get him sentenced so that he is disqualified for holding an elected office.
Any indemnity, if offered under whatever domestic or foreign pressures, must be strictly conditional with a definite term that Musharraf would never indulge in politics and would not be qualified to hold any elected office. This could form the basis for a new NRO to be written by Mr Zardari for a fallen dictator who must now be left to stew in his own juices as people of Pakistan celebrate.
Yet if the fallen dictator is given a general amnesty, there is no reason on earth to offer the same to all the corrupt cronies and middlemen, who had descended on Pakistan from all around the world to enjoy power, pelf and perks. These men, like PCB Chairman Dr Nasim Ashraf and his types, must be brought to book and made examples of.
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